Why I Concentrate On Clear Favorites And Soggy Cigar Butts
- Graham and Schloss had >50 stocks in their portfolio for much of their career
- They turned over their portfolios infrequently; probably added one position a month
- To avoid running a portfolio that requires constant good ideas:
- increase concentration
- increase hold time
- buy entire groups of stocks at once
- With his JNets, Gannon purchased a “basket” because he could not easily discriminate between Japanese firms which were both:
- profitable
- selling for less than their net cash
- Portfolio concentration when investing abroad is based upon:
- which countries do I invest in?
- how many cheap companies can I find in industries I understand?
- how many family controlled companies can I find?
- Interesting businesses are often unique
How Today’s Profits Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
- To elements to consider with any business’s returns:
- How much can you make per dollar of sales?
- How much can you sell per dollar of capital you tie up?
- Quantitative check: Gross Profit/ ((Receivables + Inventory + PP&E) – (Payables + Accrued Expenses))
- Once an industry matures, self-funding through retained earnings becomes a critical part of future growth; it’s the fuel that drives growth
- A company with high ROIC isn’t just more profitable, it can more reliably grow its own business
- Maintaining market share usually means increasing capital at the same rate at which the overall market is growing
- Higher ROIC allows for the charting of a more reliable growth path
- Industries where ROIC increases with market share present dangers to companies with low market share or low ROIC
- The easiest place to get capital is from your own successful operations; tomorrow’s capital comes from today’s profits
Why Capital Turns Matter — And What Warren Buffett Means When He Talks About Them
- Capital turns = Sales/Net Tangible Assets
- Buffett nets tangible assets against A/P and accrued expenses; gives companies credit for these zero-interest liabilities, rather than assuming shareholders pay for all of a company’s assets
- Buffett’s businesses tend to have higher sales per dollar of assets
- Companies with higher sales per dollar of assets have higher ROIC than competitors even if they have the same margins
- There’s more safety in a business in an industry with:
- adequate gross margins
- adequate capital turns
- Industries dependent upon margins or turns open themselves to devastating attacks from the player who can maximize key variables you control:
- price
- cost
- working capital management
- etc.
- Companies often compete on a specific trait; it has to be a trait that is variable and can be targeted for change
How to Lose Money in Stocks: Look Where Everyone Else Looks — Ignore Stocks Like These 15
- It’s risky to act like everyone else, looking at the same stocks everyone else looks at, or by entering and exiting with the crowd
- Don’t worry about which diet is best, worry about which diet you can stick to; find an adequate approach you can see through forever
- Having Buffett-like success requires every day commitment
- You should aim to earn 7% to 15% a year for the rest of your investing life if you aren’t going to fully commit like Buffett did
- A good investment:
- reliable history of past profitability
- cheap in terms of EV/EBITDA
- less analyst coverage
- A list of such stocks:
- The Eastern Company (EML)
- Arden (ARDNA)
- Weis Markets (WMK)
- Oil-Dri (ODC)
- Sauer-Danfoss (SHS)
- Village Supermarket (VLGEA)
- U.S. Lime (USLM)
- Daily Journal (DJCO)
- Seaboard (SEB)
- American Greetings (AM)
- Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP)
- International Wire (ITWG)
- Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
- Performed Line Products (PLPC)
- GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT)