The following notes cover Austrian economist Gary North’s views on the chances of inflation and deflation in the US and Japanese monetary systems, derived from a 5-part article series on the subject found at LewRockwell.com:
Why Deflation Is Not Inevitable (Sadly), Part 1: John Exeter’s Mistake
- Fed will attempt to stabilize money supply before hyperinflation; “mass inflation, yes; hyperinflation, no. Then deflation.”
- Deflation will not take place unless the CB stops making new money
- When prices fall, you are richer, but you pay no income tax on your profits (deflation is good)
- Not-money: if you pay a commission to exchange, the asset is not truly liquid
- Gold is a mass inflation hedge, not a deflation hedge
- According to Exter/deflationists, gold is supposedly both an inflation hedge and a deflation hedge– the only asset possessing this virtue
- We have never been able to test Exter’s theory of gold as a hedge against price deflation because there has never been a single year in which CPI has fallen (Q: what did gold price of Yen do in 2009 Japanese CPI decrease?)
- Consumer price indexes should be based upon goods and services that are rapidly consumed; not price of homes and other prices of “markets for dreams”
- Central banks inflate, they do not deflate
- “When housing is bought on the basis of ‘I’ll get rich,’ the market begins to resemble a stock market. When it is bought on the basis of ‘I can live here for what I can rent,’ it is more like the toilet paper market”
- The skyrocketing price of housing under Greenspan was not reflected in the CPI; the collapsing price of housing under Bernanke was not reflected in the CPI
- Consumer prices did not fall during the 2008-09 crisis because the money supply did not fall; if the money supply shrinks, there will be price deflation; watch the monetary statistics
Why Deflation Is Not Inevitable (Sadly), Part 2: The Deflationists’ Myth of Japan
- The money supply shrank in the US 1930-33 (Q: Why did the Fed allow money supply to shrink? Does this weaken North’s argument that the Fed will always inflate rather than deflate going forward?)
- The US and Japan had similar CB policies until late 2008, when the Fed “went berserk”
- Japan’s M2 was mildly inflationary from 1992-2009; CPI was slightly deflationary over the same period of time but never worse than 1% in any 12mo period; prices rose 2% 1997 and 2008
- There has been no systemic price deflation in Japan
- Japan is more Chicago School than Austrian
- Statistical conclusions about Japan:
- CPI in Japan fell little 1992-2009, no more than 1% per annum
- BoJ did not inflate the currency to overcome systemic price deflation, because it didn’t exist
- Collapse of Japanese RE prices did not affect CPI
- Collapse of Japanese stock market prices did not affect CPI
Why Deflation Is Not Inevitable (Sadly), Part 3: Why Currency Withdrawals Don’t Matter
- The Japanese economy is starting to become price competitive; this will have ramifications higher up the corporate command chain
- Estimates of US currency held outside the United States range from 50-70%
- Rise of credit transactions such as credit cards have minimized the role paper currency plays in everyday transactions
- Currency withdrawals from the banking system which are not later redeposited are deflationary due to the reserve ratio mechanism
- Monetary deflation can occur as a result of deliberate Fed policy:
- increase legal reserve requirement
- sell assets
- allow bank collapse to occur by not funding FDIC with new money to offset withdrawals
Why Deflation Is Not Inevitable (Sadly), Part 4: High Bid Wins
- All economics systems are governed by principles of:
- supply and demand
- high bid wins
- The increase in the Fed’s balance sheet (monetary base) has been offset by increase in excess reserves held at banks; thus, no price increases
- Deflationists’ claim: “Commercial banks will not start lending until the recovery is clear. The recovery is a myth. So, banks will not start lending, no matter what the FED does. The largest banks remain over-leveraged. They will not be able to find borrowers at any rate of interest, so the capital markets will collapse (except gold), and then consumer prices will fall.”
- North’s response: “the largest banks are making money hand over fist. It is the local banks that are failing. The FED has done what it was set up to do in 1913: protect the largest banks.”
- Inflationists’ claim: “Commercial banks will start lending when the recovery is clear. The FED will probably not contract the monetary base all the way back to August 2008, because this would bring on another crisis comparable to September 2008. The FED will not risk bankrupting the still highly leveraged megabanks. It will therefore not fully offset the decrease in excess reserves. It will not “wind down” all the way, if at all. Bernanke fears 1930—33 more than anything else. So, the money supply will rise. Prices will follow.”
- “The increase in excess reserves has been voluntary. The bankers are afraid to lend, even to the U.S. Treasury.” (Q: Why are bankers afraid to lend, even to the Treasury?)
- “The FED is in complete control over excess reserves. It pays banks a pittance to maintain these reserves. It is legally authorized to impose fees.”
- Why the Fed maintains its current policy:
- doesn’t have to sell assets
- doesn’t have to face rising long-term interest rates due to expanding money supply
- doesn’t have to worry about collapsing housing market as interest rates go to 25-40%
- doesn’t face a corporate bond market collapse
- Monitoring money supply changes is key to predicting consumer price increases
Why Deflation Is Not Inevitable (Sadly), Part 5: Conclusion
- J Irving Weiss and his son Martin, recommended 100% T-Bills since 1967; it takes $6400 to buy what $1000 bought in 1967
- Deflationists confuse asset prices with consumer prices
- Deflationists believe low interest rates lead to debt build up but lower ones won’t stabilize; cost of capital can fall to zero and no one will borrow
- This is John Maynard Keynes theory, who therefore recommended the government should borrow and spend to avoid this fate
- There is not a shortage of borrowers today, corporate bond rates are around 6%, not 0%, implying there are people looking to borrow at positive rates of interest
- Capital markets — markets for dreams, priced accordingly
- Consumer prices rise comparably to increases in M1 in the US and M2 in Japan
- Deflationists confuse money (in a bank account) with dreams (imputed asset prices in capital markets)
- At the supermarket, prices are slowly rising in the US and slowly falling in Japan
A House Rises 